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Gasoline Futures: Gulf Storm Drives Gasoline Bets Higher on Refinery Threat: Energy Markets

Gasoline Pump July 26th, 2010  

Gasoline futures trading rose at the fastest pace in more than four months as Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, threatened to disrupt refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gasoline futures open interest for outstanding contracts on reformulated gasoline on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 6 percent in the week ended July 20, the most since March 16, as speculators raised bets that prices will rise, according to the weekly Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. For crude oil, open interest on the Nymex fell 5.3 percent, the fastest rate in a month.

“Hurricane disruption this week might affect the product market more than the crude market,” said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. “There are concerns about the fragility of the economic recovery.”

Bonnie, which formed last week, degenerated late July 24 to a “disorganized area of low pressure” before reaching the Gulf coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. The states along the Gulf account for 43 percent of U.S. refining capacity and 31 percent of the nation’s oil output, Energy Department data show.

U.S. gasoline demand in the four weeks ended July 16 climbed 0.5 percent to 9.36 million barrels a day, or about 16,000 less than the highest level since August 2008, according to the Energy Department.

Gasoline futures for next month delivery gained 3.6 percent last week to $2.1222 a gallon on the Nymex and refinery utilization jumped to 91.5 percent in the week ended July 16, the highest level since August 2007. Futures fell 1.22 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $2.11 at 9:30 a.m. today in New York.

Gasoline Futures Speculative Bets

Gasoline net-long positions by hedge funds and other large investors jumped 7.1 percent to 28,906 for the week through July 20, from 27,002 a week earlier, based on gasoline futures and options trading on the Nymex, according to the CFTC. Among producers and users, so-called net short positions, or bets that prices would fall, declined to 91,047, from 91,593.

Oil advanced 3.9 percent in New York last week. Investors reduced open interest as hedge funds’ net-long positions in crude futures and options on the Nymex rose by 11,197 to 95,652 for the seven days ended July 20, according to the CFTC data.

Open interest in oil has declined amid evidence the economic recovery is faltering. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the outlook for the economy is “unusually uncertain.”

Gasoline Futures Slowing Economy

The U.S. economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter as consumer spending cooled and the trade deficit swelled, economists project a report this week will show. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual pace after increasing at a 2.7 percent rate in the first three months of the year, according to 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a July 30 Commerce Department report.

Bets on U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude slumped 13.2 percent in the 60 days through July 20 to the lowest level since November, data from the Nymex and London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange show. The last time open interest fell more was the 13.7 percent decline over the similar period through Oct. 7, 2008, three weeks after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Front-month oil futures on the Nymex haven’t settled lower than $68 a barrel or higher than $80 a barrel for the past 11 weeks. It was at $78.55 as of 10:51 a.m. London time.

“Last year, people were saying the recovery’s coming,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. “Now, people are saying what happened to the economic recovery? Why are prices not paying attention to what’s going on in the economic recovery?”

 - Margot Habiby in Dallas at Bloomberg.



See Also: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Unleaded Gas, Ethanol, Gasoline Blendstock

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