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Orange Juice Futures: Florida Orange-Crop Estimate Increased After Freeze Assessment

Orange Juice Futures and OptionsMarch 10th, 2010

The Florida orange crop, the world’s second-largest, will be 1.6 percent bigger than estimated last month, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said after assessing damage from a January freeze.

Production will total 131 million boxes in the harvest ending in July, more than analysts expected and up from the February forecast of 129 million, the USDA said today in a report. About 162.4 million boxes were collected last season. Dry weather and a cold spell in the first half of 2009 resulted in fewer and smaller oranges and a January freeze killed some crops, the government had said.

The USDA “basically cut too many” oranges in the February forecast, Ernie Thomas, the president of Global Commodity Futures LLC, said in a telephone interview from Vero Beach, Florida, before the report. “They’ve got to add them back on.”

Temperatures fell below freezing for eight straight days in Florida in the first half of January, according to the USDA. Oranges can be damaged when temperatures fall below 28 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 2 Celsius) for several hours.

“In response to the freezing temperatures in January, growers began harvesting their remaining fruit at an accelerated rate,” the USDA said in today’s report. “Plants processed much more fruit than normal in January and early February.”

The average estimate of six analysts in a Bloomberg News survey was for a crop of 127.4 million boxes. A box of oranges weighs 90 pounds, or 41 kilograms.

On Oct. 9, the USDA, in its first projection for the season, forecast a crop of 136 million boxes, then cut the estimate by 1 million in December. The department left the outlook unchanged in January and lowered it by 6 million boxes, or 4.4 percent, last month.

Yesterday, orange-juice futures for May delivery fell 2.15 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $1.4715 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, the biggest decline in more than three weeks. The commodity has almost doubled in the past year, reaching $1.53 on March 8, the highest price in more than two years, on projections for a smaller crop in Florida.

The USDA reduced its yield estimate to 1.53 gallons per box, from 1.56 gallons forecast in February.

Brazil is the world’s largest orange grower.

 - Elizabeth Campbell in New York at Bloomberg.


See Also: Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice, Sugar

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