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Natural Gas Futures: Natural Gas Futures Rise for Second Day Before Inventory Report

Christmas Tree valve system for extracting Natural GasMarch 3rd, 2010

Natural gas futures rose for a second day in New York before a report tomorrow that will probably show a bigger-than-average drop in stockpiles of the heating fuel.

The Energy Department report may show that supplies of gas fell 131 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average drop is 124 billion.

“The withdrawals have been substantial and there has been a massive cut in stockpiles, with storage now in deficit year- over-year,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy-commodity investments. “Winter is not officially over and the weather pattern is creating demand.”

Natural gas for April delivery rose 4.3 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $4.751 per million British thermal units at 12:59 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas has declined 15 percent this year.

Inventories the week ended Feb. 19 were down 2.9 percent from a year earlier, department data show. Supplies were 0.7 percent above the five-year average, down from 15.7 percent in early December. The heating season, when gas demand outstrips production and imports, runs from November through March.

A withdrawal of 150 billion cubic feet or more in tomorrow’s report would give gas prices one last boost for the season and potentially lift futures above $5 per million Btu, Kilduff said in a telephone interview.

Industrial demand for natural gas, which represents about 29 percent of consumption, may also be on the rebound with a recovery in the U.S. economy.

Consumer Spending

Consumer spending in January gained for a fourth month, rising 0.5 percent, a Commerce Department report showed on March 1. Household purchases account for about 70 percent of the economy. Manufacturing advanced in February for the seventh consecutive month. The Institute for Supply Management index was at 56.5 last month. Readings above 50 signal an expansion.

December consumption of natural gas by factories, refiners, chemical plants and steel mills was 7.4 percent higher than the previous year, reaching 19.1 billion cubic feet a day from 17.8 billion in 2008, according to the Energy Department’s Natural Gas Monthly report, released late yesterday.

Power generators also bought more gas in December than a year earlier, jumping their purchases 9 percent, according to the report.

“Industrial demand surprised our forecast to the upside,” James R. Crandell, a commodities research analyst at Barclays Capital in New York, said in a note to clients.

 - Reg Curren in Calgary at Bloomberg.

See Also: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Unleaded Gas, Ethanol, Gasoline Blendstock

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