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Dow Jones Futures: U.S. Stocks Drop on Chinese Inflation, Fewer American Exports

Dow Jones Futures and Options March 11th, 2010

U.S. stocks fell, paring this week’s rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as higher-than- estimated inflation in China spurred speculation the nation will be forced to raise interest rates and American exports slowed.

AK Steel Holding Corp. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. declined more than 1.5 percent on concern that demand from China will slow, curbing the global economic recovery. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., the largest U.S. home-furnishings retailer, lost 1.5 percent after its shares were downgraded at FBR Capital Markets Corp.

The S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent to 1,142.74 at 9:42 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 25.09 points, or 0.2 percent, to 10,542.24. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities prices retreated 0.4 percent.

“It will be slower going into risk assets,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York. “People are concerned about whether or not globally there’s a little bit of a moderation in the pace of gains that we’ve seen economically speaking.”

The S&P 500 surged 69 percent through yesterday during the past year, recovering most of its losses from the decline between Jan. 19 and Feb. 8. The three-week retreat was driven by concern some European countries will fail to pay back debt and speculation the Fed will need to rein in emergency stimulus measures as the economy improves.

16-Month High

China’s inflation reached a 16-month high, industrial output climbed and new loans exceeded forecasts, putting pressure on the government to cool economic growth.

Consumer prices rose 2.7 percent in February from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, compared with the 2.5 percent median estimate of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Production rose 20.7 percent in the first two months of 2010, the most in more than five years.

Premier Wen Jiabao aims to hold full-year inflation around 3 percent after banks flooded the financial system with money to drive a rebound from the global recession. Gross domestic product grew 10.7 percent last quarter and central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said March 6 that anti-crisis policies, including the yuan’s peg to the dollar, must end “sooner or later.”

“Obviously, inflation is a concern on a global basis,” said Tom Wirth, senior investment officer at Chemung Canal Trust Co., which manages $1.6 billion in Elmira, New York. “That fear gets translated into stock prices. China has led us out of the global recession. If they raise rates too far, too fast, that’s going to slow the world down. I don’t think it’s a problem right now, but there’s always an overreaction from investors.”

Exports Slow

U.S. stocks extended losses today after the nation’s trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in January as demand for foreign oil and automobiles dropped.

The gap decreased 6.6 percent to $37.3 billion from a revised $39.9 billion in December as Americans imported the fewest barrels of crude oil in a decade, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Exports decreased 0.3 percent, the first decline since April, on fewer shipments of commercial aircraft and autos.

Mohamed A. El-Erian, whose company runs the world’s biggest mutual fund, said deteriorating public finances may affect the global economy more than is currently realized.

“The importance of the shock to public finances in advanced economies is not yet sufficiently appreciated and understood,” El-Erian, co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote in an article on the Financial Times Web site. The potential damage from increased government borrowings is “at present being viewed primarily -- and excessively --through the narrow prism of Greece.”

 - Rita Nazareth in New York at Bloomberg.

See Also: S&P 500

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