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Crude Oil May Fall to $68.38 Next Week: Technical Analysis



February 10th, 2010

Crude oil for April delivery may fall to $68.38 a barrel as soon as the end of next week, according to technical analysis by Infinitytrading.com.

The April contract, which becomes the front month on Feb. 23, is “consolidating below the 200-day moving average” of $74.84, Fain Shaffer, president of Infinitytrading.com, a commodities brokerage in Medford, Oregon, said in an interview.

“The contract closed higher yesterday on the strength of the rising euro and falling dollar,” Shaffer said. “However, until we get consecutive closes above the 200-day moving average, the market is still technically in a downtrend.”

The initial support is $70.52, the lower Bollinger Band. Crude oil would then test $68.38, the Sept. 25 intraday low. To reverse the downtrend, crude would have to close above the 200- day average, Shaffer said.

Crude oil for April delivery yesterday rose $1.91, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $74.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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